بررسی اثر لحاظ مخاطره بر سطوح مصرف بهینة کود و سموم شیمیایی: مطالعة موردی استان مازندران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.

چکیده

با توجه به تاثیر استفاده از سموم و کودهای شیمیایی بر محیط‌زیست و همچنین، با در نظر گرفتن اینکه مخاطره (ریسک) مسئله‌‏ای جدایی‌ناپذیر از بخش کشاورزی است، هدف پژوهش حاضر حداقل‌سازی مصرف دو نهاده کود و سم با در نظر گرفتن مخاطرة عملکرد در بخش کشاورزی بر اساس اطلاعات سال زراعی 1396-1395 بود. برای نیل به اهداف مطالعه، از الگوی برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی فازی استفاده و کلیه برآوردها در نرم‌افزار GAMS انجام شد؛ همچنین، از رهیافت CVaR به‏ منظور ورود مخاطره در الگو استفاده شد. نتایج برآوردها نشان داد که الگوی آرمانی فازی، با در نظر گرفتن هر سه هدف، نسبت به الگوی بدون مخاطره، نتایجی بهینه‌تر به‏ دست می‌دهد، زیرا الگوی به ‏دست ‏آمده به شرایط واقعی نزدیک‌تر است. با توجه به نتایج مطالعه، پیشنهاد می‌شود که الگوی مورد نظر برای هر کدام از محصولات به‌طور جداگانه و بر اساس اطلاعات هر محصول برآورد شود تا اهداف مورد بررسی به‌صورت منحصربه‏ فرد برای آن محصول مشخص شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Risk on the Levels of Optimum Use of Fertilizers and Pesticides: A Case Study of Mazandaran Province of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Mojtahedi 1
  • Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani 2
1 PHD Student of Agricultural Economics, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
2 Associate Professors of agricultural economics, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Agriculture, as one of the main parts of development, plays a fundamental role in the economic development of countries. To develop this sector, farmers need suitable and acceptable policies and programs. It is important to pay attention to the fact that today, not only economic goals should be considered in agriculture, but as a source of damage in different areas, it is necessary to examine the environmental issues related to this sector. Furthermore, agriculture is an activity that comes with risk. Farmers live with risk and make decisions that affect agricultural yields. Therefore, this study aimed at concurrently reducing the usage of fertilizers and chemical pesticides, while also mitigating production risks.
Materials and Methods: To attain the study objectives, the Fuzzy Goal Programming (FGP) model was utilized, with all estimations carried out in GAMS. Additionally, the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) model was employed to capture and assess risk within the model framework. In the context of a fuzzy environment, goal programming can be formulated as FGP, incorporating three types of fuzzy goals as described in the equation as follows:
Where the sign ~ shows the fuzziness of the goal value. To establish the levels of goals within the model, initially, a distinct linear model was estimated for each of the study objectives.Top of Form The products in this study included wheat, barley, rice, corn, peas, lentils, sunflower, potato, onion, and Soybeans.
Results and Discussion: The comparison of the current situation and the results of single-objective models showed that considering the two goals of minimizing fertilizer and pesticide together would reduce the consumption of these two inputs in the final model. In the next step, the objective of risk minimization was incorporated as a significant factor in the goal-fuzzy model. The model was then simultaneously estimated based on the three goals: minimizing fertilizer, minimizing pesticides, and minimizing risk. The results of the model indicated that the consumption of fertilizer and pesticides in the final model had decreased compared to other models and the current situation. Additionally, this approach resulted in a model with lower associated risk.
Conclusions: Results of calculations showed that the FGP model considering three goals in comparison to the risk-free model would offer better results with nearer results to real conditions. Accordingly, this study suggested the concerned model to be used for each crop separately.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fuzzy Goal Programming (FGP) Model
  • Fertilizer Minimization
  • Pesticides Minimization
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)
  • Mazandaran (Province)

مراجع

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