بهینه‌یابی اثرات سطوح آبیاری و پتاسیم بر عملکرد سورگوم علوفه‌ای در شرایط بحران آب منطقة سیستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی سیستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، زابل، ایران

2 استادیار زراعت بخش زراعی باغی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی سیستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، زابل، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

4 استادیار مؤسسة پژوهش‏‌های برنامه‌‏ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

با توجه به محدودیت منابع آبی و افزایش قیمت نهاده‌­های کشاورزی در کشور، بهره­‌برداری بهینه از منابع و افزایش عملکرد در تولید محصولات برای رسیدن به رشد اقتصادی در بخش کشاورزی کاملاً ضروری است. از این‏رو، در مطالعه حاضر، اثر مقادیر مختلف پتاسیم و سطوح آبیاری برعملکرد سورگوم با استفاده از روش برنامه‌­ریزی تصادفی بازه­ای چندمرحله‌­ای در شرایط عدم قطعیت بررسی شد. بدین منظور، از داده‌­های طرح تحقیقاتی اجراشده در ایستگاه تحقیقات کشاورزی زهک به ‏مدت دو سال زراعی 1398 تا 1400 در خصوص اثر مقادیر مختلف پتاسیم و سطوح آبیاری بر عملکرد سورگوم علوفه­‌ای اسپیدفید استفاده شد. محاسبة نیاز آبی گیاه با استفاده از نرم‌‏افزارهای Cropwat و Netwat و با بهره‌‏گیری از روش پنمن مانتیث صورت گرفت؛ و تابع تولید و تابع سود با استفاده از تابع درجه دوم چندجمله‌­ای برآورد شد. نتایج نشان داد که از بین تیمارهای آبیاری در سه سطح مختلف، آبیاری پس از تخلیه شصت، چهل و هشتاد درصد آب قابل استفاده گیاه و تیمارهای کودی در سه سطح پتاسیم شامل مقادیر صفر، پنجاه و صد کیلوگرم در هکتار از منبع سولفات پتاسیم بیشترین ارزش سود مورد انتظار، تیمار آبیاری پس از تخلیه چهل درصد آب قابل استفاده گیاه و تیمار کودی در سطح پنجاه کیلوگرم در هکتار در دو شرایط نرمال و خشکسالی بود. علاوه بر این، نتایج نشان داد که مقادیر عملکرد و اجزای عملکرد بین مصرف صد کیلوگرم کود و پنجاه کیلوگرم در هر هکتار کود پتاسیم، علی‏‌رغم کاهش چهل درصدی آب مصرفی، تفاوت معنی­‌دار وجود ندرد. این موضوع نشان می‌دهد که کاربرد کود پتاسیم می­‌تواند تا حدودی کاهش آب مصرفی را جبران کند. اما در صورتی که تنش­‌های آبی شدیدتر شوند، تأثیر کود پتاسیم در جبران کاهش عملکرد کمتر خواهد شد. همچنین، نتایج بیانگر آن بود که سطوح بهینه آب در سه مزرعه برداشت علوفه مورد بررسی 12840، 12736 و 12730 متر مکعب  آب در هکتار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Optimizing the Effects of Iirrigation Levels and Potassium on Fodder Sorghum Yield under Water Crisis Conditions in Sistan Region of IranSistan region

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmood Mohammad ghasemi 1
  • Ahmad ghasemi 2
  • Mjid dahmardeh 3
  • Mohammad Efati 4
1 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Sistan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Training Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Zabul, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Agriculture, Horticulture Department, Sistan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Training Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Zabul, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Agricultural Development, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Water shortage is one of the major problems of most countries in the world, especially countries with a growing population. The only solution to this crisis is the optimal use and increasing the productivity of water resources in various sectors, especially the agricultural sector. Therefore, it seems necessary to plan for optimal use of resources and economic allocation of this scarce factor among different uses.
Materials and Methods: Multi-Stage Interval Programming (MSIP) method consists of the combination of dynamic and interval programming in the framework of stochastic optimization. The dynamics of the model, the application of a predefined policy during the optimization process, and the use of interval parameters and probabilities under the uncertainty conditions are among the advantages of this technique. Multi-Stage Interval Stochastic Programming (MSISP) is the application of interval parameters under the uncertainty conditions and considering the farmer's profit and loss during water supply or shortage. Also, the mentioned model presents the values ​​of water shortage during the programming period and gives farmers the opportunity to plan to face the water crisis. In fact, this model is a model between the primary goals of exploitation and economic goals.
Results and Discussion: Since the water supply for the region over time is a random variable, using the simulation method and the use of random numbers for different years, water supply was simulated 100 times randomly. These numbers were taken into account by considering an interval using the maximum and minimum of the past data and their standard deviation. It is worth mentioning that the 100 random selections of the amount of supply for the low water flow state were selected from dry years and for the other two states from normal and wet years, respectively.
Conclusions: In general, since water is very important in dry areas, especially in the Sistan region of Iran, and water-saving in consumption and most importantly, the efficiency of water consumption is one of the main priorities, any research leading to an increase in the water-productivity and water-saving in the use of this valuable input will help the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water Crisis
  • Interval Stochastic Programming (ISP)
  • Moisture Evacuation
  • Sistan (Region)

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